Ammunition and Missile Procurement in Europe: Opportunities

Ammunition and missile procurement: a market that outgrew its tenders

Ammunition and missile procurement in Europe has changed shape twice since 2022, first in volume and then in the way contracts are placed. The second change matters more for suppliers: ammunition and missiles are the first capability listed in Category 1 of the SAFE Regulation, and SAFE-financed awards are placed by negotiated procedure with the national industrial base [1].

The two largest Polish ammunition and missile signings of 2026, on 30 May and 24 August, are both SAFE-financed and neither passed through a competition [8][9]. A pipeline built on public tenders therefore shows a shrinking market while the actual market grows. Dfensio flagged each programme below at or before the framework stage, when executive contracts and sub-tier packages were still to be placed.

European ammunition and missile programmes: values, stages and contract windows

Values are as published by the contracting authority or the named industrial party.

Poland: the largest ammunition build-out in Europe

Poland contracts ammunition through framework agreements followed by successive executive contracts, turning one award into a decade of sourcing events. The framework of 1 June 2023 covers up to one million rounds of various types and calibres through 2029. The first executive contract, signed on 22 December 2023, is worth about PLN 11 billion for roughly 300,000 rounds of 155 mm, delivered 2024-2029, to a consortium comprising the national defence group with its projectile, propellant, explosives and fuzing subsidiaries [7].

Capacity had to be built to match. On 2 July 2025 the state injected PLN 2.4 billion of capital into large-calibre production, split PLN 1.358 billion to the shell-body producer, PLN 887.2 million to the projectile and modular-charge producer, PLN 113.3 million to the explosives producer and PLN 66.17 million to the propellant producer [10]. Each of those injections converts into plant, equipment and process-line procurement.

A second 155 mm executive agreement, worth more than PLN 6 billion for the projectile producer alone and financed by SAFE, was signed on 30 May 2026 for execution in 2028-2030, with a stated output target of 150,000 projectiles per year [8]. On 24 August 2026 a framework agreement worth more than PLN 8 billion net was signed for PIORUN very short-range air defence missiles and launchers under a multinational consortium of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Norway, with executive contracts still to be placed, deliveries to 2030 and annual missile output planned to rise from roughly 300 to around 1,500 [9]. Executive contracts pending against a signed framework are the single most actionable configuration in this domain.

Belgium, the United Kingdom and the industrial capacity race

On 9 July 2025 the Belgian Defence Minister stated that EUR 2.3 billion is being invested in ammunition, the largest ammunition investment in the history of the Belgian army [5]. The military programming law of 21 December 2025 then fixed the Combat Support Fires capability line at EUR 417.90 million with binding first commitment years: light mortars in 2026, precision indirect fire in 2028 and multiple launch rocket systems in 2034 [6].

The United Kingdom's backbone contract remains a 15-year, GBP 2.4 billion arrangement covering 39 munition types, announced in November 2020 and running from January 2023 [12]. On 19 November 2025 the government announced GBP 1.5 billion for at least six new munitions and energetics factories, identified 13 candidate sites, set total munitions spending on a path to GBP 6 billion this Parliament, and invited industry to submit proposals, with construction of the first factory intended to begin within a year [11].

Private and joint-venture investment adds a further pipeline. A new artillery ammunition plant in Lower Saxony opened on 5 September 2025 at roughly EUR 500 million, designed for up to 350,000 shells a year, ramping from 25,000 in 2025 to 140,000 in 2026 and adding artillery rocket motor production from 2026 [14]. A joint venture broke ground in Lithuania on 4 November 2025 on a 155 mm shell and propellant plant of up to EUR 300 million, including a propellants centre of excellence [15]. Every one of those lines has to be equipped.

Missiles: multinational contracting and the amendment pipeline

European missile procurement is dominated by multinational agencies and by amendments to long-running programmes, neither of which produces a national tender. On 14 March 2025, OCCAR signed on behalf of the French, Italian and British authorities an order for 218 additional Aster 15 and Aster 30 B1 missiles, together with the acceleration of 134 already-ordered missiles into 2025 and 2026, executed through the European consortium prime [13]. Pulling 134 missiles forward by a year or more requires sub-tier capacity that has to be contracted quickly and outside any competitive process.

Production localisation creates new national sub-tiers. A precision strike missile contract for the German Eurofighter fleet, announced on 5 July 2024, established a final assembly line and service centre in Bavaria, the first line for that missile outside its country of origin [16].

At EU level, the ASAP instrument under Regulation (EU) 2023/1525 awarded EUR 500 million across 31 projects by decision of 7 June 2024, covering explosives, powder, shells, missiles and testing and reconditioning certification, with named beneficiaries across several member states [2][3]. A further EUR 66.7 million supports a doubling of explosives output in Norway [4]. ASAP as a funding round is closed, but the plants it financed are being equipped now, and its successor funding runs through EDIP and SAFE.

What Dfensio flagged

• Polish 155 mm National Ammunition Reserve, about PLN 11 billion: flagged 1 June 2023 at the framework stage, six months before the first executive contract of 22 December 2023 [7].
• Polish large-calibre capacity, PLN 2.4 billion of capital injections: flagged 2 July 2025, eleven months before the SAFE-financed executive agreement of 30 May 2026 [8][10].
• PIORUN EDIRPA framework, more than PLN 8 billion net: flagged 24 August 2026, with all executive contracts still to be placed [9].
• Belgian Ammunition Readiness Plan, EUR 2.3 billion: flagged 9 July 2025, five months before the programming law fixed the Combat Support Fires line at EUR 417.90 million [5][6].
• UK munitions and energetics factories, GBP 1.5 billion: flagged 19 November 2025, ahead of site selection and the first construction award [11].

What ammunition and missile suppliers should do next

Three windows are open with dates attached. The PIORUN framework of 24 August 2026 has executive contracts still to be placed against more than PLN 8 billion of planned value, across four participating states [9]. The British energetics programme has 13 candidate sites, an open invitation to industry and a stated intention to begin construction on the first factory within a year of the November 2025 announcement [11]. The Belgian Combat Support Fires line carries a first commitment year of 2026 for light mortars and 2028 for precision indirect fire, written into law [6].

The counterparty is the national armament agency, the multinational agency or the consortium prime, approached against the named framework or capability line.