Ammunition and Missile Procurement in Europe: Opportunities

Ammunition and missile procurement: the tender notice is disappearing by law

Ammunition and missile procurement in Europe has changed shape twice since 2022: first in volume, then in legal form. The volume change is visible in every national budget; the legal change is more consequential for suppliers and far less understood.

Article 19 of the SAFE Regulation provides that procurement involving at least one member state receiving SAFE financial assistance shall be deemed to satisfy the condition of urgency resulting from a crisis for the purposes of Article 28(1)(c) of Directive 2009/81/EC. The contracting authority does not have to demonstrate urgency; the regulation deems it. The practical effect is that a SAFE-financed ammunition award can be made by negotiated procedure without any contract notice [1]. Ammunition and missiles are the first capability listed in Category 1 of the same regulation.

This is already the observed practice, not a theoretical risk. The two largest Polish ammunition and missile signings of 2026, on 30 May and 24 August, are both SAFE-financed and both were disclosed through industrial and ministerial channels rather than through a procurement portal [8][9]. For a propellant, energetics, forging, machining or fuzing supplier, the consequence is that a tender-notice-driven pipeline will show a shrinking market while the actual market grows.

European ammunition and missile programmes: values, stages and tender windows

Values are as published by the contracting authority or the named industrial party. Where an official value does not exist, we say so.

Poland: the largest ammunition build-out in Europe, and it is SAFE-financed

Poland runs its ammunition procurement through a framework agreement with the state armament agency followed by successive executive contracts, which turns one award into a decade of sourcing events. The framework of 1 June 2023 covers up to one million rounds of various types and calibres through 2029. The first executive contract, signed on 22 December 2023, is worth about PLN 11 billion for roughly 300,000 rounds of 155 mm, delivered 2024-2029, to a consortium comprising the national defence group with its projectile, propellant, explosives and fuzing subsidiaries [7].

Capacity had to be built to match. On 2 July 2025 the state injected PLN 2.4 billion of capital into large-calibre production, split PLN 1.358 billion to the shell-body producer, PLN 887.2 million to the projectile and modular-charge producer, PLN 113.3 million to the explosives producer and PLN 66.17 million to the propellant producer [10]. Each of those injections converts into plant, equipment and process-line procurement.

The 2026 signings show where the market has moved. A second 155 mm executive agreement, worth more than PLN 6 billion for the projectile producer alone and financed by SAFE, was signed on 30 May 2026 for execution in 2028-2030, with a stated output target of 150,000 projectiles per year [8]. On 24 August 2026 a framework agreement worth more than PLN 8 billion net was signed for PIORUN very short-range air defence missiles and launchers under a multinational consortium of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Norway, with executive contracts still to be placed, deliveries to 2030 and annual missile output planned to rise from roughly 300 to around 1,500 [9]. Executive contracts pending against a signed framework are the single most actionable configuration in this domain.

Belgium, the United Kingdom and the industrial capacity race

Belgium's ammunition effort is unusually large relative to the size of its forces. On 9 July 2025 the Defence Minister told the Chamber Defence Committee that EUR 2.3 billion is being invested in ammunition, describing it as the largest ammunition investment in the history of the Belgian army, and stated that the ammunition plan was ready and would go to government the following week [5]. The programming law of 21 December 2025 then fixed the Combat Support Fires capability line at EUR 417.90 million with binding first commitment years: light mortars in 2026, precision indirect fire in 2028 and multiple launch rocket systems in 2034 [6]. Belgium does not name industrial parties, but it publishes the year in which the money must be committed, which is what a supplier needs to time an approach.

The United Kingdom has taken the opposite approach and published its industrial intent before its contracts. The backbone contract remains a 15-year, GBP 2.4 billion arrangement covering 39 munition types, announced in November 2020 and running from January 2023 [12]. On 19 November 2025 the government announced GBP 1.5 billion for at least six new munitions and energetics factories, identified 13 candidate sites, set total munitions spending on a path to GBP 6 billion this Parliament, and invited industry to submit proposals through a planned procurement notice [11]. A planned procurement notice inviting proposals is, for once, an explicitly open door.

The wider capacity race runs through private and joint-venture investment that is itself a procurement pipeline. A new artillery ammunition plant in Lower Saxony opened on 5 September 2025 at roughly EUR 500 million, designed for up to 350,000 shells a year, ramping from 25,000 in 2025 to 140,000 in 2026 and adding artillery rocket motor production from 2026 [14]. A joint venture broke ground in Lithuania on 4 November 2025 on a 155 mm shell and propellant plant of up to EUR 300 million, including a propellants centre of excellence [15]. Every one of those lines has to be equipped.

Missiles: multinational contracting and the amendment pipeline

European missile procurement is dominated by multinational agencies and by amendments to long-running programmes, neither of which produces a national tender. On 14 March 2025, OCCAR signed on behalf of the French, Italian and British authorities an order for 218 additional Aster 15 and Aster 30 B1 missiles, together with the acceleration of 134 already-ordered missiles into 2025 and 2026, executed through the European consortium prime with named industrial participation on propulsion and effectors [13]. The acceleration clause matters commercially: pulling 134 missiles forward by a year or more requires sub-tier capacity that has to be contracted quickly and outside any competitive process.

Production localisation is the second missile signal worth tracking. A precision strike missile contract for the German Eurofighter fleet, announced on 5 July 2024, established a final assembly line and service centre in Bavaria, the first line for that missile outside its country of origin [16]. Where a missile line is established in a new country, a national sub-tier is created with it.

At EU level, the ASAP instrument under Regulation (EU) 2023/1525 awarded EUR 500 million across 31 projects by decision of 7 June 2024, covering explosives, powder, shells, missiles and testing and reconditioning certification, with named beneficiaries across several member states [2][3]. A further EUR 66.7 million supports a doubling of explosives output in Norway [4]. ASAP as a funding round is closed, but the plants it financed are being equipped now, and its successor funding runs through EDIP and SAFE.

How Dfensio tracks ammunition and missile programmes

Dfensio monitors the authorisation and industrial layers of European ammunition and missile procurement continuously, and archives each document on the day it appears.

• EU legal instruments and award decisions. Regulations, award decisions with named beneficiaries and amounts, and the eligibility rules that determine whether a supplier can be in the chain at all.
• Frameworks and their executive contracts. Where a state contracts a framework and places executive contracts against it, we track the residual quantity, because that residual is the forward market.
• Programming laws and capability lines. Binding first commitment years for fires, effectors and munitions stockpiles.
• Parliamentary records. Committee transcripts in which ministers state plan values and contract references that appear nowhere else.
• Capacity investment. Plant openings, groundbreakings, capital injections and letters of intent, each of which converts into equipment, process-line and raw-material procurement.

Because SAFE-financed awards can legally bypass contract notices, we treat the absence of a notice as expected rather than as evidence that nothing is happening. Client briefings are confidential: Dfensio never names its clients or the programmes they follow, and works only from public official sources.

What ammunition and missile suppliers should do next

Three windows are open with dates attached. The PIORUN framework of 24 August 2026 has executive contracts still to be placed against more than PLN 8 billion of planned value, across four participating states [9]. The British energetics programme has a planned procurement notice open, 13 candidate sites and a stated intention to begin construction on the first factory within a year of the November 2025 announcement [11]. The Belgian Combat Support Fires line carries a first commitment year of 2026 for light mortars and 2028 for precision indirect fire, written into law [6].

The correct counterparty is the national armament agency, the multinational agency or the consortium prime, approached against the named framework or capability line. In this domain especially, waiting for a contract notice means waiting for a document that the law no longer requires anyone to publish.

Dfensio's analysts are available to answer questions on any ammunition and missiles programme mentioned here - request a confidential briefing at dfensio.com/contact.