Air Combat Procurement in Europe: Supplier Opportunities

Air combat procurement in Europe: contracted outside the tender system

Air combat procurement in Europe is authorised in budget law and contracted by negotiated procedure, intergovernmental agreement or multinational agency. The public tender is rarely part of the sequence. In France, roughly EUR 6 billion of authorisations were affected to combat aircraft and maritime patrol programmes for 2026 alone, and none of it will be advertised. Belgium has written more than EUR 3.3 billion of combat air investment into law with a first commitment year attached to each line. NATO and OCCAR contract the largest multinational programmes directly with the prime.

For a tier-2 or tier-3 supplier, the sourcing window therefore opens and closes between the authorisation of the money and the signature of the prime contract. Dfensio flagged each programme below inside that window.

European aerospace programmes: values, stages and expected contract windows

Values are as published by the contracting authority or the prime.

France: three programmes worth EUR 7.6 billion, no tender

France affects EUR 2,980,000,000 of authorisations to the Rafale F5 standard for 2026, of which EUR 1,347.56 million is committed in the year, and describes the operation as the launch of the next phase [1]. The first F5 orders were notified to industry in October 2024 [2]. As at early September 2026 no notification of the next phase has been announced, so the window has been open for close to eleven months.

The future maritime patrol aircraft programme carries EUR 2,956,200,915 of authorisations for 2026, with the industrial and commercial arrangements to be determined at the launch into realisation. This is the largest European air programme Dfensio follows with no designated prime contractor [1]. The two candidate architectures were funded in December 2022 through two architecture studies of EUR 10.9 million each, and Dfensio has followed the programme since that point, roughly four years ahead of prime selection.

The airborne early warning replacement moved faster. France signed a letter of intent with Saab on 18 June 2025, the armament directorate ordered two GlobalEye systems on 30 December 2025, and the order was published on 6 January 2026, against a EUR 1,668,000,000 authorisation corresponding to the launch into realisation [1][3]. Dfensio flagged the programme at the letter of intent, six months before the order. Separately, the ASN4G hypersonic missile development contract was notified to MBDA on 2 June 2026 [4].

Belgium: a legislated combat air envelope with dated commitments

The Belgian military programming law of 21 December 2025 fixes a total of EUR 33,784,153,531 and attaches a first year of contractual commitment to every capability line. The Air Combat multirole line is EUR 3,387.41 million in constant 2026 euros, and its first listed item is the acquisition of 11 additional F-35A aircraft with a first commitment year of 2026, followed by manned-unmanned teaming in 2030, electronic warfare development in 2028 and survival radios in 2027 [5].

The capability investment portfolio adds further air lines: the Alliance Future Surveillance and Control programme at EUR 580.4 million first committed in 2026, a third medium-altitude long-endurance system at EUR 254.1 million first committed in 2027, and special operations medium and heavy transport helicopters at EUR 1,289.5 million first committed in 2033, with the F-35A aircraft line itself at EUR 1,672.3 million [6].

The additional F-35A purchase runs government-to-government, so the supplier route is the prime and the foreign military sales case. The helicopter and MALE lines are new acquisitions whose industrial route has not yet been fixed.

The United Kingdom and the multinational layer

The British New Medium Helicopter programme is the earliest flag in Dfensio's aerospace record. Leonardo announced the onshore Team AW149 UK supply chain on 14 September 2021, while still in competition [9]. The deal, worth about GBP 1 billion for 23 aircraft and four simulators, was announced on 2 March 2026 with 3,300 jobs at Yeovil, UK workshare above 40 per cent and a supply chain of nearly 70 companies [7]; the contract was awarded on 23 March 2026, with first delivery in 2030 [8]. The same airframe was contracted by Poland in July 2022, 32 aircraft for PLN 8 billion gross from PZL-Swidnik [14], so the AW149 sub-tier now serves two European fleets.

Multinational programmes behave differently. The Eurodrone contract was signed by OCCAR with Airbus Defence and Space on 24 February 2022 for 20 systems and 60 aircraft plus five years of initial support, with the French share at four systems and twelve aircraft [10][11]. Neither the agency nor the prime has disclosed a contract value. No national order follows the multinational contract; the residual opportunity lies in scope amendments and in the tier-1 wave that began 29 days after signature.

The NATO airborne early warning replacement is the largest open aerospace window in Europe today. NATO selected GlobalEye on 7 July 2026 for up to ten systems, with negotiations running through the NATO Support and Procurement Agency, and the prime has stated that no contract has been signed and no order received [12]. Separately, a Swedish-brokered contract for 16 Gripen E for Ukraine was signed on 30 June 2026 [13].

What Dfensio flagged

• UK New Medium Helicopter, about GBP 1 billion for 23 AW149: flagged 14 September 2021, roughly 54 months before the contract award of 23 March 2026 [7][8][9].
• French GlobalEye order, EUR 1,668 million authorisation: flagged 18 June 2025, six months before the order of 30 December 2025 [1][3].
• French future maritime patrol aircraft, EUR 2,956.2 million of authorisations and no designated prime: followed since December 2022, roughly four years ahead of prime selection [1].
• Rafale F5 next phase, EUR 2,980 million: flagged 12 October 2025, with the notification still pending as at September 2026 [1].
• NATO Alliance Future Surveillance and Control, up to ten GlobalEye: flagged 7 July 2026, at selection, with the NSPA negotiation still open [12].
• Belgian F-35A, MALE and helicopter lines, EUR 3.39 billion, EUR 254.1 million and EUR 1,289.5 million: flagged 21 December 2025 against first commitment years of 2026, 2027 and 2033 [5][6].

What aerospace suppliers should do next

Three windows carry dates. The French future maritime patrol programme has EUR 2.96 billion of authorisations and no designated prime, the rarest and most valuable configuration in European aerospace [1]. The French Rafale F5 next phase is authorised at EUR 2.98 billion and had not been notified as at the start of September 2026 [1]. The NATO airborne early warning negotiation opened on 7 July 2026 and runs through a multinational agency, where subsystem, training and support work is decided in the negotiation rather than in a subsequent tender [12].

In each case the approach is to the armament directorate, the multinational agency or the prime, against the named programme and its published envelope, before the design review closes the nomenclature.