France: a EUR 413bn programming period and a 2026 cohort of new starts
Defence procurement in France is run by the Direction générale de l'armement (DGA) under the military programming law of 1 August 2023, which commits EUR 413.3bn to the armed forces over 2024-2030 [2]. Within that envelope, 2026 is a launch year: Dfensio flagged about twenty armament operations whose realisation phase begins in 2026, with more than EUR 11bn of committed authority attached [1].
The cohort spans a maritime patrol aircraft, a military space programme, the successor to the AWACS fleet, a ground-launched ballistic missile, future air-to-surface weapons, a third increment of tactical drones, a new HF radio and the early phase of an ocean-going corvette. Several start before an industrial prime has been selected.
Programmes flagged by Dfensio for 2026-2028
| Programme | Value | Stage | Flagged by Dfensio (date) | Expected contract window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PATMAR futur, maritime patrol aircraft | EUR 2,956.2m committed 2026 | Realisation launched 2026; prime not yet chosen | 22 December 2022 | 2026-2027 |
| Rafale F5 and combat drone (UCAV) | EUR 2,980.0m committed 2026 | In realisation; ASN4G framework notified 2 June 2026 | 29 September 2023 | Next phase from 2026 |
| IRIS, military space | EUR 2,232.0m committed 2026 | Realisation launched 2026; target set at launch | 12 October 2025 | 2026-2027 |
| SDCA replacement, airborne early warning | EUR 1,668.0m committed 2026 | Two GlobalEye ordered 30 December 2025 | 18 June 2025 | Ordered |
| Ground-launched ballistic missile | EUR 1,000.0m committed 2026 | New operation, 2026 | 12 October 2025 | 2026-2027 |
| Future air-to-surface weapons (AASF) | EUR 600.0m committed 2026 | Realisation launched 2026 | 12 October 2025 | 2026-2027 |
| Contact drones, increment 3 | EUR 550.0m committed 2026 | Call for candidates issued 17 February 2026 | 29 September 2023 | 2026-2027 |
| Future HF radio, increment 1 | EUR 395.1m committed 2026 | Realisation launched; prime to be designated | 12 October 2025 | 2026-2027 |
| Ocean-going corvette | EUR 82.0m committed 2026 | Preparation phase | 12 October 2025 | 2028 or later |
Values are the committed authority for 2026 as published by the French State [1].
Air and space: PATMAR futur, Rafale F5, SDCA and IRIS
PATMAR futur is the largest open competition in the French portfolio. On 22 December 2022 the DGA notified two architecture studies of EUR 10.9m each, one to Airbus Defence and Space and one to Dassault Aviation, with a programme launch envisaged in 2026 [5]. The 2026 allocation of EUR 2,956.2m confirms that launch, and the State records that the industrial and commercial arrangements will be determined at the launch of realisation [1]. The mission-system, sensor and sustainment tiers beneath both candidate chains are being assembled now.
Rafale F5 and the combat drone were created by the programming law of 2023 [2]. The DGA announced the first development contracts to Dassault Aviation, Thales and Safran on 8 October 2024, and the 2026 allocation of EUR 2,980.0m funds the next phase [1][5]. On 2 June 2026 the DGA notified MBDA the framework realisation agreement for the ASN4G hypersonic missile [5].
SDCA replacement is an off-the-shelf purchase abroad. A letter of intent between the DGA and Saab was signed at the Paris Air Show on 18 June 2025 and the order for two GlobalEye systems followed on 30 December 2025 [1][5]. The remaining opportunity is French-based support and integration rather than the platform.
IRIS, the military space line, receives EUR 2,232.0m for 2026 with its target defined at launch [1].
Land, weapons and communications: where tier-2 suppliers can still enter
Future HF radio, increment 1 enters realisation with EUR 395.1m before a prime is designated [1]. For manufacturers of antennas, filters, HF power amplifiers and ruggedised connectors, that means roughly twelve months in which the requirement and the money are fixed while the industrial team is not.
Contact drones, increment 3 carries EUR 550.0m for 2026 [1]. The programme line was created in September 2023 with EUR 120m and an industrial organisation to be set at launch; the DGA's call for candidates for a first batch of light tactical intelligence drone systems followed on 17 February 2026 [1][5]. Airframe, payload, datalink and ground-station suppliers are being qualified through that call.
Ground-launched ballistic missile is a new EUR 1,000.0m operation and future air-to-surface weapons (AASF) a EUR 600.0m start, both with targets defined at launch [1]. Both sit in the guided-weapons tier led by MBDA and Safran and their propulsion, seeker and energetic-materials suppliers.
Ocean-going corvette receives EUR 82.0m for a preparation phase, two stages ahead of the build contract [1]. Hull, propulsion and combat-system positioning can start earliest here.
Industrial policy that matters to suppliers
France buys through national primes wherever a national solution exists: Dassault Aviation, Thales, Safran, MBDA, Airbus Defence and Space and Naval Group hold the major programmes, and the State names the prime once an operation is in realisation [1]. The State does not name second-tier suppliers; positioning happens with the prime's purchasing organisation, in the interval between a programme's launch and the designation of its industrial team.
Where no national solution exists, France buys off the shelf abroad and moves fast, as the GlobalEye order shows: six months from letter of intent to order [5]. The parliamentary opinions on the 2026 equipment appropriations record the programme schedules and their slippage against the initial reference [3][4].
What Dfensio flagged in France
- Rafale F5 and the combat drone: flagged 12.3 months before the first development contracts of 8 October 2024 [1][5].
- ASN4G framework agreement: flagged 19.8 months before the MBDA notification of 2 June 2026 [1][5].
- Contact drones: flagged 29 months before the DGA call for candidates of 17 February 2026 [1][5].
- PATMAR futur: two candidate industrial chains flagged 46 months before the EUR 2,956.2m realisation allocation, with the prime still open [1][5].
- The 2026 cohort: about twenty operations and more than EUR 11bn flagged on 12 October 2025, twelve months before the first contracts are due [1].
Dfensio's analysts are available to answer questions on any French programme in this brief. Request a confidential briefing at dfensio.com/contact.
Frequently asked questions
Which French programmes will open to new suppliers before 2028?
PATMAR futur (EUR 2,956.2m, prime not yet chosen), the future HF radio first increment (EUR 395.1m, prime to be designated), contact drones increment 3 (EUR 550.0m, call for candidates issued February 2026), the ground-launched ballistic missile (EUR 1,000.0m) and future air-to-surface weapons (EUR 600.0m) all launch realisation in 2026 with their industrial teams still being formed [1].
Who are the primes on the main French programmes?
Dassault Aviation, Thales and Safran hold the Rafale F5 and combat drone development contracts; MBDA holds the ASN4G framework agreement; Airbus Defence and Space and Dassault Aviation are the two candidate chains on PATMAR futur; Saab supplies the GlobalEye aircraft under the SDCA replacement [5].
Is PATMAR futur still an open competition?
Yes. Two architecture studies were notified in December 2022 to Airbus Defence and Space and Dassault Aviation, and the 2026 allocation of EUR 2,956.2m states that the industrial and commercial arrangements will be determined at the launch of realisation [1][5].
Official sources
- Projet annuel de performances 2026, mission Défense, programme 146. Assemblée nationale / Ministère de l'Économie et des Finances, 2025-10-12
- Loi n° 2023-703 du 1er août 2023 relative à la programmation militaire 2024-2030. Légifrance, République française, 2023-08-01
- Avis n° 141 (2025-2026), Défense : équipement des forces (programme 146). Sénat (France), 2025-11-20
- Avis n° 2048 tome VII, Défense : équipement des forces. Assemblée nationale, 2025-10-29
- Direction générale de l'armement, actualités. Ministère des Armées (France), 2026-09-02
Dfensio's analysts are available to answer questions on any programme mentioned in this article. Request a confidential briefing at dfensio.com/contact.
